Preface: After the Qingming Festival holiday, due to the impact of tariffs between China and the United States, bulk commodities have become the main trend, and 304 steel sheet futures have also shown a continuous downward trend. The spot market has changed its strong bullish mentality before the holiday and gradually weakened cautiously. Since the end of the Qingming Festival holiday, the price of private 304 hot and cold rolling has dropped by 500 yuan/ton.

1、 Affected by tariffs between China and the United States, raw material prices have loosened and cost support has weakened

Affected by tariffs between China and the United States, bulk commodities have shown a downward trend after the Qingming holiday, and nickel prices have also shown a downward trend. On April 9th, the latest transaction of a steel mill in East China was at 985 yuan/nickel (including tax upon arrival). The price of nickel iron has fallen sharply, and market sentiment has fallen. It is worth noting that on the cost side, the price of nickel ore in Indonesia has not yet loosened, and the profit margin of nickel iron has narrowed; The stable operation of ferrochrome is the main focus. Due to the further increase in chrome ore futures quotes, the cost support of ferrochrome still exists, and factories have a bullish mentality. However, in the face of a falling price market, downstream factories find it difficult to accept high quotes, and the overall wait-and-see attitude is mainly maintained.

2、 The price increase of 304 steel sheet has ended, and the digestion of spot inventory has slowed down

According to research statistics, on April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of 89 caliber stainless steel warehouses in the mainstream market nationwide was 1084400 tons, with a decrease of 0.29% in the weekly ratio. Among them, for the 300 series, the total inventory of stainless steel was 730500 tons, with a decrease of 0.28% in the weekly ratio. Among them, the 300 series cold rolling increased and hot rolling decreased, and the steel mills received less goods during the week. South China steel mills received normal goods. Due to the impact of the falling price market, the inventory digestion speed slowed down significantly during the week. Among them, cold rolling mainly increased a small amount of warehouse receipt resources, and hot rolling transactions were better than cold rolling during the week. The market's low-priced shipping behavior also increased, continuing to reduce inventory and slowing down the overall market digestion speed.

3、 Steel mills lower prices, led by a mentality of following the decline in spot prices

Affected by macro factors, stainless steel futures have shown a significant decline, and the post holiday sentiment in the spot market has been significantly dampened. As the South China steel mills opened lower for two consecutive times this week, market pessimism has risen and low-priced shipments have increased. Due to the high cost of resources held by spot merchants, most large investors are unwilling to rush ahead at low prices. However, facing the uncertainty of macro factors, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and it is basically necessary to maintain the daily benchmark trading volume level. The overall market performance is cautious. During the week, the price of privately-owned 304 hot and cold rolled coils decreased by 500 yuan/ton, with the mainstream price of privately-owned 304 cold-rolled rough base coils reaching 12850-12900 yuan/ton and the mainstream price of privately-owned 304 hot-rolled rough edge coils reaching 12650-12700 yuan/ton.

Summary: The factors of tariffs between China and the United States have significantly weakened market sentiment and increased concerns about future market trends. However, although the performance of the raw material side has slightly loosened, it has remained stable. Although cost support has weakened, it still exists. Currently, macro factors and the opening situation of steel mills have a dominant impact on spot prices.